Market Update from CIO Dave Klassen – July 2024

MARKETS

  • Global equity markets continued the positive rally from the previous month although this month led by International developed markets outside the U.S. Within the U.S, small cap stocks outperformed as investors evaluated their positioning with the Mag-7. The global equity index (MSCI ACWI IMI) increased by +1.61% in July and is up +13.10% YTD. The S&P 500, which tracks large cap U.S. stocks, increased by +1.22% in July and is up +16.70% YTD. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks domestic small cap stocks increased by +10.16% in July and is up +12.07% YTD. The International developed equity index (MSCI EAFE) increased by +2.93% in July and is up +8.43% YTD. The emerging markets index (MSCI EM) increased by +0.30% in July and is up +7.81% YTD.
  • In July, bond yields decreased across maturities; the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 16 bps to 4.35%, the 10-year yield decreased by 27 bps to 4.09%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 42 bps to 4.29%.
  • The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, which is a measure of U.S. Bond prices, increased by 2.34% in July and is up +1.61% YTD.


ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES

  • U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2024 increased by 2.8%, according to the “advanced” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter of 2024 GDP increased by 1.4%.
  • The July Services PMI (formerly Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) increased to 51.40% from 48.80% in June. This represents expansion and is higher than market expectations of 51.30%. The July Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.80% from June’s 48.50%. Per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a reading above 50 is considered economic expansion and below 50 is considered economic contraction.
  • July non-farm employment increased by 114,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 2nd, 2024. In July employment increased in health care; construction; and transportation and warehousing. Average Hourly Earnings (wages) increased by 3.6% year-over-year in July.


PERFORMANCE UPDATES

  • The Equity Fund increased by 2.39% in July and is up 11.86% YTD. The Bond Fund increased by 2.24% in July and is up 1.46% YTD. The Stable Value Fund was up +0.23% for July and is up 1.31% YTD. The Northern Trust Global Sustainability Index Fund (GSIF) increased by 0.84% in July and is up 13.33% YTD.
  • The Balanced Fund increased by 1.58% in July and is up 6.09% YTD. The Target Annuitization Date TAD 2025; TAD 2030; TAD 2035; TAD 2040 TAD 2045 and TAD 2050 returns were 1.18%, 2.07%, 2.25%, 2.34%, 2.38% and 2.37% respectively for July and up +3.87%, +6.18%, +7.06%, +8.59%, +9.31%, and +9.95% YTD.