Market Update from CIO Dave Klassen – June 2024

MARKETS

  • Global equity markets continued the positive rally from the previous month as the softer inflation data and resilient labor market continued to support the soft-landing narrative, though performance across markets varied substantially. The global equity index (MSCI ACWI IMI) increased by +2.23% in June and is up +11.30% YTD. The S&P 500, which tracks large cap U.S. stocks, increased by +3.59% in June and is up +15.29% YTD. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks domestic small cap stocks decreased by -0.93% in June and is up +1.73% YTD. The International developed equity index (MSCI EAFE) decreased by -1.61% in June and is up +5.34% YTD. The emerging markets index (MSCI EM) increased by +3.94% in June and is up +7.49% YTD.
  • In June, bond yields decreased across maturities; the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 14 bps to 4.51%, the 10-year yield decreased by 15 bps to 4.36%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 18 bps to 4.71%.
  • The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, which is a measure of U.S. Bond prices, increased by 0.95% in June and is down -0.71% YTD.


ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES

  • U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 1.4%, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In® the fourth quarter of 2023 GDP increased by 3.4%.
  • The June Services PMI (formerly Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) decreased to 48.80% from 53.80% in May. This represents contraction and is lower than market expectations of 52.50%. The June Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.50% from May’s 48.70%. Per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a reading above 50 is considered economic expansion and below 50 is considered economic contraction.
  • June non-farm employment increased by 206,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 5th, 2024. In June employment increased in government; health care; social assistance; and construction. Average Hourly Earnings (wages) increased by 3.9% year-over-year in June.


PERFORMANCE UPDATES

  • The Equity Fund increased by 1.27% in June and is up 9.25% YTD. The Bond Fund increased by 0.80% in June and is down -0.77% YTD. The Stable Value Fund was up +0.19% for June and is up 1.08% YTD. The Northern Trust Global Sustainability Index Fund (GSIF) increased by 2.19% in June and is up 12.38% YTD.
  • The Balanced Fund increased by 1.11% in June and is up 4.44% YTD. The Target Annuitization Date TAD 2025; TAD 2030; TAD 2035; TAD 2040 TAD 2045 and TAD 2050 returns were 0.60%, 0.96%, 1.05%, 1.13%, 1.18% and 1.19% respectively for June and up +2.66%, +4.03%, +4.70%, +6.10%, +6.77%, and +7.41% YTD.