Market Update from CIO Dave Klassen – April 2023

MARKETS

  • Global equity markets were mostly positive in April except for emerging markets and small cap in the US, as inflation ticked down but concerns around a recession and the Federal Reserve’s next move remained. The global equity index (MSCI ACWI IMI) increased by +1.44% in April and is up +8.85% YTD. The S&P 500, which tracks large cap U.S. stocks, increased by +1.56% in April and is up +9.17% YTD. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks domestic small cap stocks decreased by -1.80% in April and is up +0.89% YTD. The International developed equity index (MSCI EAFE) increased by +2.82% in April and is up +11.53% YTD. The emerging markets index (MSCI EM) decreased by -1.13% in April and is up +2.78% YTD.
  • In April, bond yields were either flat or marginally decreased while exhibiting intra-month volatility; the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at +3.67%, the 10-year yield decreased by 4 bps to +3.44%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 2 bps to +4.04%.
  • The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, which is a measure of U.S. Bond prices, increased by +0.61% in April and is up 3.59% YTD.


ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES

  • U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2023 increased by 1.1%, according to the “Advanced” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2022 GDP increased by 2.6%.
  • The April Services PMI (formerly Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) marginally increased to 51.90% from 51.20% in March. This represents expansion territory and slightly higher than market expectations of 51.80%. The April Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 47.10% from March’s 46.30%. Per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a reading above 50 is considered economic expansion and below 50 is considered economic contraction.
  • April non-farm employment increased by 253,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.4%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 5th, 2023. In April employment increased in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Average Hourly Earnings (wages) increased by 4.4% year-over-year in April.


PERFORMANCE UPDATES

  • The Equity Fund increased by +0.08% in April and is up 6.34% YTD. The Bond Fund increased by +0.56% in April and is up 3.45% YTD. The Stable Value Fund was up 0.12% for April and is up 0.65% YTD. The Northern Trust Global Sustainability Index Fund (GSIF) increased by +1.64% for April and is up 9.91% YTD.
  • The Balanced Fund increased by +0.46% in April and is up 6.49% YTD. The Target Annuitization Date TAD 2025; TAD 2030; TAD 2035; TAD 2040 TAD 2045 and TAD 2050 returns were +0.24%, +0.30%, +0.27%, +0.23%, +0.18%, and +0.14% respectively for April and +3.25%, +4.61%, +5.14%, +5.40%, +5.61%, and +5.87% YTD.