Member Login| |

Market Update from CIO Lan Cai, CFA – October 2026

MARKETS

  • The Fed held rates steady at the October meeting. While investors cautiously waiting for the U.S. Mid-Term result, election surprise in Brazil affected the emerging market. The global equity index (MSCI ACWI IMI) decreased -1.56% in October and was up +11.21% YTD. The S&P 500, which tracks large cap U.S. stocks, decreased -0.87% in October and was up +11.77% YTD. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks domestic small cap stocks increased 0.58% in October and was up +14.37% YTD. The International developed equity index (MSCI EAFE) decreased -0.74% in October and was up +9.52% YTD. The emerging markets index (MSCI EM) decreased -8.05% in October and was up +13.45% YTD.

  • In October, we saw a decrease in rates across the curve; the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased -33 bps to 5.31%, the 10-year yield decreased -35 bps to 4.94%, and the 2-year yield decreased -32 bps to 4.56%. The Bloomberg U.S. Government Credit Index, a proxy for the U.S. fixed income market, increased 2.27% in October and was down -0.64% YTD.


ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES

  • According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the advanced estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in the third quarter of 2026 by +3.4%, up from the second quarter 2026 increase of +2.2%.

  • The October Services PMI was 54.5%, a decrease of -0.4% from September. The October Manufacturing PMI was 55.5%, up 1% from September. Per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a reading above 50 is considered economic expansion and below 50 is considered economic contraction.

  • As reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 6, 2026, October non-farm employment increased by 165,000 jobs, much better than expected, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%.  In October, employment in professional and businesses services, health care, and transportation and warehousing saw increases. Average Hourly Earnings (wages) increased by 3.1% year-over-year.


PERFORMANCE UPDATES

  • The Equity Fund decreased -1.84% in October and is up +11.11% YTD. The Bond Fund increased 1.96% in October and is down -1.34% YTD. The Stable Value Fund increased +0.22% in October and is up +2.23% YTD. The Northern Trust World Selection Index Fund decreased -0.83% in October and is up +10.60% YTD.

  • The Sustainable Balanced Fund increased by 0.21% in October and is up +4.76% YTD. The Target Annuitization Date TAD 2025; TAD 2030; TAD 2035; TAD 2040; TAD 2045; TAD 2050; TAD 2055; TAD 2060; and TAD 2065 returns were slightly mixed 0.14%, 0.14%, -0.07%, -0.40%, -0.70%, -0.98%, -1.24%, -1.27%, and -1.27% respectively for October and are up 3.30%, +4.12%, +5.29%, +6.40%, +7.83%, +8.30%, +9.16%, +9.20%, and +9.18% respectively YTD.

Note: Fund performance values are estimates.