Market Update from CIO Dave Klassen – November 2024

MARKETS

  • The certainty of U.S. election results led to the U.S. leading global markets in November. Meanwhile, markets such as China declined on trade concerns. The global equity index (MSCI ACWI IMI) increased by +3.74% in November and is up +20.34% YTD. The S&P 500, which tracks large cap U.S. stocks, increased by +5.87% in November and is up +28.07% YTD. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks domestic small cap stocks increased by +10.97% in November and is up +21.58% YTD. The International developed equity index (MSCI EAFE) decreased by -0.57% in November and is up +6.24% YTD. The emerging markets index (MSCI EM) decreased by -3.59% in November and is up +7.65% YTD.
  • In November, bond yields decreased across maturities; the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 11 bps to 4.36%, the 10-year yield decreased by 10 bps to 4.18%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 3 bps to 4.13%.
  • The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, which is a measure of U.S. Bond prices, increased by +1.06% in November and is up +2.93% YTD.


ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES

  • U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2.8%, according to the “2nd” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter of 2024 GDP increased by 3.0%.
  • The November Services PMI (formerly Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) decreased to 52.10% from 56.00% in October. This represents expansion but is lower than market expectations of 55.50%. The November Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.40% from 46.50% in October. Per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a reading above 50 is considered economic expansion and below 50 is considered economic contraction.
  • November non-farm employment increased by 227,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.2%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on December 6tht, 2024. In November employment increased in health care, leisure and hospitality, and government. Average Hourly Earnings (wages) increased by 4.0% year-over-year in November.


PERFORMANCE UPDATES

  • The Equity Fund increased by +3.50% in November and is up 17.77% YTD. The Bond Fund increased by +0.79% in November and is up 3.01% YTD. The Stable Value Fund was up +0.20% for November and is up 2.16% YTD. The Northern Trust Global Sustainability Index Fund (GSIF) increased by +4.60% in November and is up 20.47% YTD.
  • The Balanced Fund increased by +2.34% in November and is up 9.79% YTD. The Target Annuitization Date TAD 2025; TAD 2030; TAD 2035; TAD 2040 TAD 2045 and TAD 2050 returns were +1.06%, +1.85%, +2.31%, +2.56%, +2.76% and +2.96% respectively for November and up +5.89%, +9.39%, +10.91%, +12.93%, +14.01%, and +14.98% YTD.